Thursday, June 21, 2012
There Was A Serpent
There was a serpent and man did smite him by cutting him in half, however, the serpent refused to die and instead man now had two serpents to deal with, so man did devise a method to smash the two serpents into a million tiny little pieces which he did and then man had a million tiny little serpents to deal with until finally man decided to give up at which point the serpents died due to lack of attention.
Monday, June 4, 2012
So I think I am going to blog my 2012 fantasy football season. I will post things which were important to my decision making process and I will discuss my rationale for various draft picks I make. I am typically an early starter and this year is no different. I have started with the Vegas odss for the teams for the upcoming season. The Vegas odds I found on-line as of June 1st 2012 are as follows ...
Green Bay Packers +$500 (5 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$800 (8 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$800 (8 to 1)
Houston Texans +$1,100 (11 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants +$1,300 (13 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,600 (16 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$2,400 (24 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$2,500 (25 to 1)
New York Jets +$2,500 (25 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Arizona Cardinals +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$6,000 (60 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$10,000 (100 to 1)
This is where I will begin my analysis. Well, with one additional bit of information. Here is how the teams finished last year
NFC
NFC EAST W L T PCT
NY Giants 9 7 0 .563
Philadelphia 8 8 0 .500
Dallas 8 8 0 .500
Washington 5 11 0 .313
NFC NORTH W L T PCT
Green Bay 15 1 0 .938
Detroit 10 6 0 .625
Chicago 8 8 0 .500
Minnesota 3 13 0 .188
NFC SOUTH W L T PCT
New Orleans 13 3 0 .813
Atlanta 10 6 0 .625
Carolina 6 10 0 .375
Tampa Bay 4 12 0 .250
NFC WEST W L T PCT
San Francisco 13 3 0 .813
Arizona 8 8 0 .500
Seattle 7 9 0 .438
St. Louis 2 14 0 .125
AFC
AFC EAST W L T PCT
New England 13 3 0 .813
NY Jets 8 8 0 .500
Miami 6 10 0 .375
Buffalo 6 10 0 .375
AFC NORTH W L T PCT
Baltimore 12 4 0 .750
Pittsburgh 12 4 0 .750
Cincinnati 9 7 0 .563
Cleveland 4 12 0 .250
AFC SOUTH W L T PCT
Houston 10 6 0 .625
Tennessee 9 7 0 .563
Jacksonville 5 11 0 .313
Indianapolis 2 14 0 .125
AFC WEST W L T PCT
Denver 8 8 0 .500
San Diego 8 8 0 .500
Oakland 8 8 0 .500
Kansas City 7 9 0 .438
Now, armed with that information, we can begin by looking to see who the Vegas odds makers think is going to do better (or worse) this year. This is a good place to start and then we can look at each case and see if we agree or disagree with them and why.
Fantasy football is an interesting thing because it is often the case that changes in non-position players has an affect on position players. As an extreme example, take Peyton Manning. If you put him on a team with 5 bad rookies on the offensive line then he will get killed, if you insteaed put him on a team with 5 all pro offensive lineman who will give him unlimited time then he could be throwing to high school players and still do well, so it is often the case that non-position players will be one of the reasons the Vegas odds makers move a team up or down from where they finished the previous year. When we later analyze the deltas the Vegas guys have predicted we will make sure we understand what is going on with the non position players before we jump to any conclusions about the position players.
Now it is also the case that rookies in the NFL, while very flashy, rarely make an impact their first year. Yes, some QBs have come through recently that blow that theory out of the water (although it goes the other way more often than not), but think about it. When was the last time a rookie WR or RB came into the league and did anything of sgnificance? Last year, A.J. Green is the only exception to the rule I can think of for about 5 years. I have friends who say "oh, well if not for injury, RB X or WR Y but I say phoee. Injury is exactly what I am talking about. You have guys who go four years at the collgiate level and never get a scratch. They play one year in the NFL and get injured and you never hear from them again. Its a completely diffrerent level of play and players hold up differently. So, one thing I have built-in in my fantasy drafting is to stay away from rookies unless like anything else, you can get a crazy steal or your willing to take a calculated risk, like Cam Newton was last year. And, BTW I drafted A.J. Green way high last year, but mainly because he was a calculated risk as a WR3 where there was absolutely nobody available (like round 9) unless you consider Jerome Simpson a better 9th round value.
Now a second thing that is kind of ingrained in my fantasy drafting is the three year rule. This is something my son Edward convinced me of and I tend to go with it. It goes something like this ... barring a trade somewhere, a rookie, in his third year with his original team will probably have a career year. Its kinda like the sophmore jinx in baseball. I am sure there is no scientific evidence to support it but I believe in it. So, one thing I will be looking for later when analyzing the position players is which players are in their 3rd year.
But, just to button up this already too long post, we will initially concentrate on things from a team level using the two pieces of information (data) I pasted above; the Vegas odds and last year's final results.
Green Bay Packers +$500 (5 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$800 (8 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$800 (8 to 1)
Houston Texans +$1,100 (11 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants +$1,300 (13 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,600 (16 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$2,400 (24 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$2,500 (25 to 1)
New York Jets +$2,500 (25 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Arizona Cardinals +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$6,000 (60 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$10,000 (100 to 1)
This is where I will begin my analysis. Well, with one additional bit of information. Here is how the teams finished last year
NFC
NFC EAST W L T PCT
NY Giants 9 7 0 .563
Philadelphia 8 8 0 .500
Dallas 8 8 0 .500
Washington 5 11 0 .313
NFC NORTH W L T PCT
Green Bay 15 1 0 .938
Detroit 10 6 0 .625
Chicago 8 8 0 .500
Minnesota 3 13 0 .188
NFC SOUTH W L T PCT
New Orleans 13 3 0 .813
Atlanta 10 6 0 .625
Carolina 6 10 0 .375
Tampa Bay 4 12 0 .250
NFC WEST W L T PCT
San Francisco 13 3 0 .813
Arizona 8 8 0 .500
Seattle 7 9 0 .438
St. Louis 2 14 0 .125
AFC
AFC EAST W L T PCT
New England 13 3 0 .813
NY Jets 8 8 0 .500
Miami 6 10 0 .375
Buffalo 6 10 0 .375
AFC NORTH W L T PCT
Baltimore 12 4 0 .750
Pittsburgh 12 4 0 .750
Cincinnati 9 7 0 .563
Cleveland 4 12 0 .250
AFC SOUTH W L T PCT
Houston 10 6 0 .625
Tennessee 9 7 0 .563
Jacksonville 5 11 0 .313
Indianapolis 2 14 0 .125
AFC WEST W L T PCT
Denver 8 8 0 .500
San Diego 8 8 0 .500
Oakland 8 8 0 .500
Kansas City 7 9 0 .438
Now, armed with that information, we can begin by looking to see who the Vegas odds makers think is going to do better (or worse) this year. This is a good place to start and then we can look at each case and see if we agree or disagree with them and why.
Fantasy football is an interesting thing because it is often the case that changes in non-position players has an affect on position players. As an extreme example, take Peyton Manning. If you put him on a team with 5 bad rookies on the offensive line then he will get killed, if you insteaed put him on a team with 5 all pro offensive lineman who will give him unlimited time then he could be throwing to high school players and still do well, so it is often the case that non-position players will be one of the reasons the Vegas odds makers move a team up or down from where they finished the previous year. When we later analyze the deltas the Vegas guys have predicted we will make sure we understand what is going on with the non position players before we jump to any conclusions about the position players.
Now it is also the case that rookies in the NFL, while very flashy, rarely make an impact their first year. Yes, some QBs have come through recently that blow that theory out of the water (although it goes the other way more often than not), but think about it. When was the last time a rookie WR or RB came into the league and did anything of sgnificance? Last year, A.J. Green is the only exception to the rule I can think of for about 5 years. I have friends who say "oh, well if not for injury, RB X or WR Y but I say phoee. Injury is exactly what I am talking about. You have guys who go four years at the collgiate level and never get a scratch. They play one year in the NFL and get injured and you never hear from them again. Its a completely diffrerent level of play and players hold up differently. So, one thing I have built-in in my fantasy drafting is to stay away from rookies unless like anything else, you can get a crazy steal or your willing to take a calculated risk, like Cam Newton was last year. And, BTW I drafted A.J. Green way high last year, but mainly because he was a calculated risk as a WR3 where there was absolutely nobody available (like round 9) unless you consider Jerome Simpson a better 9th round value.
Now a second thing that is kind of ingrained in my fantasy drafting is the three year rule. This is something my son Edward convinced me of and I tend to go with it. It goes something like this ... barring a trade somewhere, a rookie, in his third year with his original team will probably have a career year. Its kinda like the sophmore jinx in baseball. I am sure there is no scientific evidence to support it but I believe in it. So, one thing I will be looking for later when analyzing the position players is which players are in their 3rd year.
But, just to button up this already too long post, we will initially concentrate on things from a team level using the two pieces of information (data) I pasted above; the Vegas odds and last year's final results.
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