Fantasy Football 2012 Team One

THE DRAFT

So I drafted my first team July 12th at 9pm. Its a standard $350 NFFC On-Line with (12 team snake draft with third round reversal) a top prize of $50k. I felt that rather than just discuss a bunch of different players I would simply comment on why I drafted who I did where.

I drafted from the ninth position which is exactly what I had asked for in my pre-draft preferences. My good friend Jimmy, who is also in this league, had asked for the sixth spot and he got that too. Just an FYI - in this league before the draft you set your draft position preferences from spot one to twelve.

 My rationale for drafting ninth is that there are seven really good running backs (RBs) this year (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Matthews, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden) who to me are pretty much the same, or at least I wouldn't mind drafting any one of them first, so drafting seventh would be better than picking first since I would then get a better second round pick. Now I also figure both Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers will be gone by the ninth pick so that means I will get one of the previously mentioned nine players at the ninth spot, who to me, are all worthy of a first round pick and just about equal in value. Of course many will nit pick and say "McFadden, really?" or "Aaron or Calvin are a hell of a lot more valuable then Chris Johnson", but I feel getting any one of the aforementioned at the ninth spot is good value.

Given a third round reversal the ninth spot gets three really good picks (ninth, fourth and fourth) so I was hoping to get a RB in the first round and then another RB in the second. If a really good one fell to me, I would also take one in the third round, otherwise I take a WR. I think there are about 20-24 decent RBs this year then the quality falls off drastically. Not so with wide receivers. There are tons of them this year. So my general draft strategy for this year is to pick from the number nine spot and pick RB-RB-RB-WR-WR=WR=QB-TE-QB.

All of this strategy is subject to my one basic fantasy draft rule which is that you take the best available player regardless of position with the first three picks, with a minor addendum being don't take two QBs or TEs with the first three picks. So, I am always going to adapt my draft strategy if I see a player I feel is a number one pick, for example, available in the third round. So, going into my first draft, this is kind of how I was thinking.

Here is how the draft actually went with my picks bolded ...

1 1 Arian Foster RB 1 2 Ray Rice RB 1 3 LeSean McCoy RB 1 4 Calvin Johnson WR 1 5 Aaron Rodgers QB 1 6 Ryan Mathews RB 1 7 Tom Brady QB 1 8 Chris Johnson RB 1 9 Maurice Jones-Drew RB 1 10 Trent Richardson RB 1 11 Drew Brees QB 1 12 Matthew Stafford QB

2 1 Wes Welker WR 2 2 Darren McFadden RB 2 3 Jimmy Graham TE 2 4 Marshawn Lynch RB 2 5 Andre Johnson WR 2 6 Rob Gronkowski TE 2 7 Larry Fitzgerald WR 2 8 DeMarco Murray RB 2 9 Roddy White WR 2 10 Matt Forte RB 2 11 Cam Newton QB 2 12 Jamaal Charles RB

3 1 Brandon Marshall WR 3 2 Dez Bryant WR 3 3 Darren Sproles RB 3 4 A.J. Green WR 3 5 Julio Jones WR 3 6 Greg Jennings WR 3 7 Hakeem Nicks WR 3 8 Adrian Peterson RB 3 9 Mike Wallace WR 3 10 Steve Smith WR 3 11 Victor Cruz WR 3 12 Steven Jackson RB

 4 1 Frank Gore RB 4 2 Percy Harvin WR 4 3 Brandon Lloyd WR 4 4 Miles Austin WR 4 5 Marques Colston WR 4 6 Jeremy Maclin WR 4 7 Jordy Nelson WR 4 8 Demaryius Thomas WR 4 9 DeSean Jackson WR 4 10 Dwayne Bowe WR 4 11 Kenny Britt WR 4 12 Fred Jackson RB

5 1 Doug Martin RB 5 2 Ahmad Bradshaw RB 5 3 Michael Vick QB 5 4 Peyton Manning QB 5 5 Jahvid Best RB 5 6 Michael Turner RB 5 7 Vernon Davis TE 5 8 Antonio Brown WR 5 9 Tony Romo QB 5 10 Eric Decker WR 5 11 Aaron Hernandez TE 5 12 Vincent Jackson WR

 6 1 Stevie Johnson WR 6 2 C.J. Spiller RB 6 3 Antonio Gates TE 6 4 Jason Witten TE 6 5 Jermichael Finley TE 6 6 Roy Helu RB 6 7 Reggie Bush RB 6 8 James Starks RB 6 9 Shonn Greene RB 6 10 Torrey Smith WR 6 11 Jonathan Stewart RB 6 12 Willis McGahee RB

7 1 Reggie Wayne WR 7 2 Fred Davis TE 7 3 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB 7 4 Robert Meachem WR 7 5 Philip Rivers QB 7 6 Isaac Redman RB 7 7 Eli Manning QB 7 8 DeAngelo Williams RB 7 9 Beanie Wells RB 7 10 Matt Ryan QB 7 11 Stevan Ridley RB 7 12 Justin Blackmon WR

8 1 Michael Crabtree WR 8 2 Mark Ingram RB 8 3 Donald Brown RB 8 4 Jacob Tamme TE 8 5 Greg Little WR 8 6 Denarius Moore WR 8 7 Pierre Garcon WR 8 8 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 8 9 Tony Gonzalez TE 8 10 Peyton Hillis RB 8 11 Santonio Holmes WR 8 12 Brandon Pettigrew TE

9 1 Lance Moore WR 9 2 Ben Roethlisberger QB 9 3 Jermaine Gresham TE 9 4 Danny Amendola WR 9 5 Sidney Rice WR 9 6 Malcom Floyd WR 9 7 Ben Tate RB 9 8 Toby Gerhart RB 9 9 Felix Jones RB 9 10 Ronnie Hillman RB 9 11 Titus Young WR 9 12 Jay Cutler QB

 10 1 Dustin Keller TE 10 2 Brent Celek TE 10 3 Michael Bush RB 10 4 Pierre Thomas RB 10 5 Mike Williams WR 10 6 Ryan Williams RB 10 7 San Francisco DST 10 8 Jared Cook TE 10 9 Robert Griffin III QB 10 10 David Wilson RB 10 11 Doug Baldwin WR 10 12 Shane Vereen RB

 11 1 Austin Collie WR 11 2 Jacquizz Rodgers RB 11 3 Isaiah Pead RB 11 4 Daniel Thomas RB 11 5 LeGarrette Blount RB 11 6 Mikel LeShoure RB 11 7 Greg Olsen TE 11 8 Nate Washington WR 11 9 Kevin Smith RB 11 10 Randy Moss WR 11 11 Anquan Boldin WR 11 12 Michael Floyd WR

12 1 Matt Schaub QB 12 2 Alex Green RB 12 3 Jake Locker QB 12 4 Carson Palmer QB 12 5 Owen Daniels TE 12 6 Joe Flacco QB 12 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 12 8 Santana Moss WR 12 9 Laurent Robinson WR 12 10 James Jones WR 12 11 Mike Goodson RB 12 12 Delone Carter RB

13 1 Andrew Luck QB 13 2 Eddie Royal WR 13 3 Brandon LaFell WR 13 4 Chad Johnson WR 13 5 Josh Freeman QB 13 6 Vincent Brown WR 13 7 Jon Baldwin WR 13 8 Coby Fleener TE 13 9 Tim Hightower RB 13 10 Nate Burleson WR 13 11 Andy Dalton QB 13 12 Alshon Jeffery WR

 14 1 Kyle Rudolph TE 14 2 Jerome Simpson WR 14 3 Randall Cobb WR 14 4 Bernard Scott RB 14 5 Mike Tolbert RB 14 6 Jacoby Ford WR 14 7 Earl Bennett WR 14 8 Chicago DST DST 14 9 David Nelson WR 14 10 Kendall Wright WR 14 11 Davone Bess WR 14 12 Evan Royster RB

15 1 Heath Miller TE 15 2 Joe McKnight RB 15 3 Taiwan Jones RB 15 4 Sebastian Janikowski K 15 5 Rashard Mendenhall RB 15 6 David Akers K 15 7 Rashad Jennings RB 15 8 Philadelphia DST 15 9 Brian Quick WR 15 10 Ed Dickson TE 15 11 Rueben Randle WR 15 12 Green Bay DST

16 1 Detroit DST 16 2 Houston DST 16 3 Buffalo DST 16 4 Baltimore DST 16 5 Dexter McCluster RB 16 6 New York (N) DST 16 7 Jason Snelling RB 16 8 New York (A) DST 16 9 Pittsburgh DST 16 10 Seattle DST 16 11 New England DST 16 12 Atlanta DST

 17 1 Dallas DST 17 2 Stephen Gostkowski K 17 3 Devery Henderson WR 17 4 Sam Bradford QB 17 5 Lance Kendricks TE 17 6 Brian Hartline WR 17 7 Dan Bailey K 17 8 Arizona DST 17 9 Cedric Benson RB 17 10 Andre Caldwell WR 17 11 Emmanuel Sanders WR 17 12 Mohamed Sanu WR

18 1 Knowshon Moreno RB 18 2 Mason Crosby K 18 3 Kendall Hunter RB 18 4 Javon Ringer RB 18 5 Golden Tate WR 18 6 Lamar Miller RB 18 7 Kellen Winslow TE 18 8 Chris Rainey RB 18 9 Dallas Clark TE 18 10 Montario Hardesty RB 18 11 Joseph Addai RB 18 12 Jordan Shipley WR

 19 1 Matt Prater K 19 2 Martellus Bennett TE 19 3 Rob Bironas K 19 4 Ronnie Brown RB 19 5 Robbie Gould K 19 6 Kevin Walter WR 19 7 Tim Tebow QB 19 8 Matt Bryant K 19 9 Bernard Pierce RB 19 10 Alex Henery K 19 11 Steve Breaston WR 19 12 Chris Givens WR

 20 1 Garrett Hartley K 20 2 Nick Toon WR 20 3 Leonard Hankerson WR 20 4 Jason Hanson K 20 5 Alex Smith QB 20 6 Tony Moeaki TE 20 7 Lance Ball RB 20 8 Robert Turbin RB 20 9 Dion Lewis RB 20 10 Matt Flynn QB 20 11 Kellen Davis TE 20 12 Marcus Easley WR

MY ANALYSIS

I was very happy MJD dropped to me at the ninth pick. I consider him the 4th or 5th best back in the draft. I assume his current hold-out helped. I was hoping McFadden would fall to me in the second but when he went it was a no-brainer taking Lynch, and keep in mind I took him before he got his DUI. I would probably have taken him even if I knew about the DUI. I suspect he will have a big year in Seattle.

 I was very conflicted in the third round but ended up taking AJ Green over a third running back. I absolutely love Green and consider him the second best receiver in the draft just ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. He had more down field targets last year (attempts over 20 yards or maybe its 30) than anybody, if I'm not mistaken, and he should get better in his second year. He is one of the few rookie WRs or RBs I can think of who have made an impact in their first year.

My fourth round pick was a bit long in coming due to the nature of the third round reversal. I watched a lot of quality go before it was my turn. I ended up choosing Deean Jackson over Michael Vick and Ahmad Bradshaw mainly because he is fresh off a new contract and should be motivated this year, which I feel he was not last year. Also, he is one of the fastest WRs in the league even though he's a pretty big guy. I like him maybe even more than Percy Harvin who I was thinking I would end up with here.

My fifth pick is where I decided to take my first major risk. Peyton Manning may have a great year in Denver or he way have a terrible year and even get hurt, but I still decided at this point that I would go with Manning and RGIII; two big risk/reward QBs. If I was going to not play it safe at any position this year I had already decided it would be QB. Of course I now had to watch how the QBs went off the board and decide how long I could risk not taking Robert Grffin but it was clear I was now going to have to draft him at some point in the next 3-4 rounds.

I took Shonn Green in the 6th round mainly because other than Green-Ellis I didn't think there were any decent non-platoon starters left. I think this is the last year for Green; either he kicks ass or he's out in NY. I figure they will run the wildcat up there a lot with Tebow and Sporano so I see Green getting a ton of carries (around 275-325) in a more open offense than he has run in the past. He is a risk, but as my 3rd RB and potential flex I felt he had the upside to justify that risk.

I may have made a mistake and reached for Meechem in the 7th but WRs were getting scarce and all the news coming out of early Chargers training camp is that Norv Turner loves him and he will probably be their number one receiver this year. It is interesting that Peter King just posted an article today that said "Royal over Meechem" but I don't agree. Anyway, by this point in the draft it was pretty clear I was gonna have to take some chances to find a decent number three receiver as most of the good receivers were already gone by the 7th round.

Taking Tony Gonzalez over Brandon Pettigrew in the 8th may prove to be the biggest mistake I made in this draft. Pettigrew is Stafford's second favorite target after Calvin and I think he will only get better this year. I like Gonzalez though as I think the Falcons will be a high scoring offense this year and teams will be covering White and Jones at the expense of leaving a line backer on Gonzalez who should get his usuall 8-12 TDs this year.

The ninth round is where I went against my better judgement and drafted Danny Amendola over Sidney Rice because my son Edward kept screaming in my ear. You would think by now I was immune to such behavior but let's just say this was not really my choice though I do agree Amendola has an opportunity to catch over 60-70 passes this year. He could be a poor man's Welker so I am not terribly upset over this pick, unless of course Rice has a big year in Seattle which is what I am expecting (note - Ed says he is coming off shoulder surgeries and may not be the same player he was before the operations).

When I saw Jay Cutler go off the board at the end of the ninth I knew it was time to pull the trigger on Griffin. I actually was happy to get him in the tenth as I thought I might have to draft him earlier.

I took Daniel Thomas in the 11th round and was very happy with him, though my friend Jimmy who drafted sixth thinks he will be the 3rd back after Bush and Miller. He is high on Lamar Miller but I still think Thomas will be the starter before the season ends (unless Reggie Bush does not get hurt which I think is highly unlikely). Miller does have some wheels though. I'm pretty sure he wiull be returning kickoffs for the fish this year.

I took Laurent Robinson in the 12th round because he was a big free agent acquisition for Jacksonville and I know they will target him a lot. In fact I believe he will get about twice as many targets as Blackmon and thats if Blackmon can keep out of trouble. I also am banking on Chad Henne taking over the starting QB spot, hopefully, sooner rather than later. He is a NFL caliber QB even if his time in Miami did not show it. In time I expect either Robinson or my next pick to become my third WR.

Chad Johnson (once known as Ochocinco) was available in the 13th round so I took him. Even though his coach said "he will be our number one wide receiver if he makes the team" I just don't think the Dolphins have any choice at this point. Devon Bess is a decent slot receiver but he is not a number one WR nor is he much of a down field threat. Ochocinco said the Patroits kept him down last year and I believe it. I think he will have a bounce back year this year, my only concern being who will throw him the ball? I'm thinking Garrard for half the season, Tennehill for a few games then Matt Morre. Its a mess which is why Ocho is a 13th round pick. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

I have absolutely nothing to say about my 14th round pick, David Nelson, except that my son Edward basically made it. He loves him, and I agreed to take him so we'll see. Had I not taken Nelson here, I would have taken Evan Royster or Rashard Jennings (MJD's handcuff).

Janikowski and Baltimore are two sentimental picks for me as I have had both on just about every money team I've had over the years and they always do well.

Ronnie Brown and Dallas Clark were my picks but Deion Lewis (my last pick) was made by Ed. I suspect Ronnie Brown and Deion Lewis will be on the waiver wire by week five but you never know. Dallas Clark might have been the biggest sleeper of the draft now that Winslow is in Seattle. I felt he was a great risk at this point in the draft.