I remember when I was a young pup working as a programmer for a company that made controlled access (security) systems for IBM and Ford and such, that my fellow coders and I would muse about our managers and how it seemed they were more interested in controlling us rather than encouraging us to work harder. In fact sometimes it seemed like they would deliberately demotivate us for god knows what reason (most probably political gain).
We came to the conclusion that a good manager worked for his engineers, not the other way around. A manager's job is to get his engineers whatever it takes to make them more productive. If they need an in-circuit emulator, then we should rent one. If they are stuck on a coding issue you should be able to resolve it for them. If they need a newer version of a compiler you need to pay the upgrade fee, etc. Within reason of course, but the point here is that the title of manager should be replaced by the term "Uber Grunt" and then you will have the right mindset to manage others.
This is a core value I have carried with me throughout my career; that a good manager doesn't control his people, but rather works for his people in an attempt to make them as productive as possible. The worst thing a manager can do is demotivate a fellow team member. This is easy to do, but must be avoided at all costs. It is one of the major mistakes a manager can make. Better to over look minor transgressions than to alienate an otherwise productive resource. Don't forget who works for who.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Sunday, January 27, 2013
San Francisco Cheap Hotels
So now that I have finally found an apartment I figured I better document my recent travels at cheap hotels in the area so I don't forget all the wonderful places I have found. All of the following hotels I mention are true hotels, not hostels, which basically means you get your own bathroom, you don't have to share one with other people which is a must for me.
The Americas Best Value Inns are all over the place in this area. I stayed at the one in the Marina district which is on Lombard Street between Pierce and Scott street. My friend Nick stayed at the one near 7th and Folsom. In both cases the rooms were fine, decent sized, pretty clean and fairly cheap. I paid like $65 a night, Nick paid like $65 a night then he booked another week at the front desk and they gave him a $55 a night rate. The Marina District one is one block from Chestnut which is a nice 5-6 block shopping area with decent clubs and good restaurants. There are a bunch of other hotels up and down Lombard street (the Cow Hollow, The Alpha, The Surf, etc) which all rent for between $69-$99 per night. Lombard is a very safe area and I never felt in danger regardless of time or day. It is also an easy walk to Filmore and Union which is a nice shopping area with some decent night life. The Americas Best Value Inn at 7th and Folsom is closer to the main downtown area though.
I also stayed at the Grant Plaza hotel which is one block up the hill from the main Chinatown gate. It is an excellent, safe neighborhood and the room cost me $65 a night (they advertise $69 but I got a better deal online) and while it is clean and centrally located, the room was tiny (maybe under 200 sq ft) and the 20" TV only got like 7 stations. Still, if you want the heart of San Francisco I would recommend the Grant as it is probably one of the best cheap hotels in downtown San Francisco. One block down, actually next to the main gate is the Astoria hotel which I have also heard good things about. In fact one of the guys at work actually lived there for like 13 months. He eventually got them to rent him the room for $1,400/month but the typical rate is like $79 per night. Keep in mind that neither of these hotels have wifi, laundry and most of the other things you might expect. They are very simply a room.
If you are willing to pay a bit more the Mariott near 2nd and Folsom is an excellent choice. My company had an event there and I asked at the front desk how much a room was and they told me $125 a night. I was shocked and asked if that was some sort of special and he said no, that it was just the slow time of year for them (January) and that rooms ranged between $125-$225 a night depending on time if year and in town events (conferences tend to increase the price as they are close to the Moscone Center) but this is a very nice hotel for $125 a night.
I also visited the Gaylord Inn Suites located near Post and Taylor which is a bit close to the Tenderloin but I thought it would be pretty safe if I kept away from the Geary area. The nice thing about the Gaylord is it is a longer term solution, so all rooms are decent sized, have pots and pans and plates and silverware. Typical mini fridge and micro wave and I believe even a small range. The monthly rate is $2,000/month which, for the middle of downtown San Francisco with no lease required is quite reasonable. The neighborhood is close to a bad area though so I would physically check it out at night first before I committed to staying a month. I chose to stay at the Grant for like 2 weeks instead because I wanted to check out more neighborhoods and a month in one place was too long for my purposes. The weekly rate at the Gaylord Inn is like $750 which is not that great a deal.
Finally, I wanted to get a more comfortable, clean and modern room so I visited San Bruno. San Bruno is about 15 minutes south of San Francisco on the Caltrain so it is quite commutable. Once you get off the Caltrain you need to walk 5 minutes to get to El Camino Real which is the main highway through San Bruno. You will walk through a little neighborhood which is a bit odd, but its a pretty safe neighborhood and it is literally a 5 minute walk to the main drag where most of the hotels are located. Much like Lombard street in the Marina District, there are a bunch of hotels up and down the main boulevard ranging from $55-$85 per night (Howard Johnsons, Budget Inn, Ramada, etc). I had discovered the Super 8 which had a 8.4 out of 10 rating on Trip Advisor so I checked it out first before visiting the Gateway Inn and the Ramada. The Super 8 was the best by far. Excellent, large, clean rooms, free breakfast (waffle maker was cool) 40" TV with over 100 channels, free wifi, mini-fridge, microwave, coffee maker, etc. Very nice room, I would give it a 9.0 on Trip Advisor. The staff is friendly and it is across the street from the main San Bruno street which also has a casino on it which is great for poker players like me. It is also one block from a Walgreens which is open until midnight and there are two liquor stores nearby which are open until 2am. There are many great restaurants in San Bruno most within walking distance of the hotels. The Burmese restaurant and Hiro's Sushi are just awesome. Also, San Bruno prices are about 30% less than San Francisco on almost everything ranging from liquor to food so all in all this is my favorite place to stay and when I need to come back to San Francisco in the future this is where I will stay. I ended up paying $65 a night for an excellent conveniently located room.
The Americas Best Value Inns are all over the place in this area. I stayed at the one in the Marina district which is on Lombard Street between Pierce and Scott street. My friend Nick stayed at the one near 7th and Folsom. In both cases the rooms were fine, decent sized, pretty clean and fairly cheap. I paid like $65 a night, Nick paid like $65 a night then he booked another week at the front desk and they gave him a $55 a night rate. The Marina District one is one block from Chestnut which is a nice 5-6 block shopping area with decent clubs and good restaurants. There are a bunch of other hotels up and down Lombard street (the Cow Hollow, The Alpha, The Surf, etc) which all rent for between $69-$99 per night. Lombard is a very safe area and I never felt in danger regardless of time or day. It is also an easy walk to Filmore and Union which is a nice shopping area with some decent night life. The Americas Best Value Inn at 7th and Folsom is closer to the main downtown area though.
I also stayed at the Grant Plaza hotel which is one block up the hill from the main Chinatown gate. It is an excellent, safe neighborhood and the room cost me $65 a night (they advertise $69 but I got a better deal online) and while it is clean and centrally located, the room was tiny (maybe under 200 sq ft) and the 20" TV only got like 7 stations. Still, if you want the heart of San Francisco I would recommend the Grant as it is probably one of the best cheap hotels in downtown San Francisco. One block down, actually next to the main gate is the Astoria hotel which I have also heard good things about. In fact one of the guys at work actually lived there for like 13 months. He eventually got them to rent him the room for $1,400/month but the typical rate is like $79 per night. Keep in mind that neither of these hotels have wifi, laundry and most of the other things you might expect. They are very simply a room.
If you are willing to pay a bit more the Mariott near 2nd and Folsom is an excellent choice. My company had an event there and I asked at the front desk how much a room was and they told me $125 a night. I was shocked and asked if that was some sort of special and he said no, that it was just the slow time of year for them (January) and that rooms ranged between $125-$225 a night depending on time if year and in town events (conferences tend to increase the price as they are close to the Moscone Center) but this is a very nice hotel for $125 a night.
I also visited the Gaylord Inn Suites located near Post and Taylor which is a bit close to the Tenderloin but I thought it would be pretty safe if I kept away from the Geary area. The nice thing about the Gaylord is it is a longer term solution, so all rooms are decent sized, have pots and pans and plates and silverware. Typical mini fridge and micro wave and I believe even a small range. The monthly rate is $2,000/month which, for the middle of downtown San Francisco with no lease required is quite reasonable. The neighborhood is close to a bad area though so I would physically check it out at night first before I committed to staying a month. I chose to stay at the Grant for like 2 weeks instead because I wanted to check out more neighborhoods and a month in one place was too long for my purposes. The weekly rate at the Gaylord Inn is like $750 which is not that great a deal.
Finally, I wanted to get a more comfortable, clean and modern room so I visited San Bruno. San Bruno is about 15 minutes south of San Francisco on the Caltrain so it is quite commutable. Once you get off the Caltrain you need to walk 5 minutes to get to El Camino Real which is the main highway through San Bruno. You will walk through a little neighborhood which is a bit odd, but its a pretty safe neighborhood and it is literally a 5 minute walk to the main drag where most of the hotels are located. Much like Lombard street in the Marina District, there are a bunch of hotels up and down the main boulevard ranging from $55-$85 per night (Howard Johnsons, Budget Inn, Ramada, etc). I had discovered the Super 8 which had a 8.4 out of 10 rating on Trip Advisor so I checked it out first before visiting the Gateway Inn and the Ramada. The Super 8 was the best by far. Excellent, large, clean rooms, free breakfast (waffle maker was cool) 40" TV with over 100 channels, free wifi, mini-fridge, microwave, coffee maker, etc. Very nice room, I would give it a 9.0 on Trip Advisor. The staff is friendly and it is across the street from the main San Bruno street which also has a casino on it which is great for poker players like me. It is also one block from a Walgreens which is open until midnight and there are two liquor stores nearby which are open until 2am. There are many great restaurants in San Bruno most within walking distance of the hotels. The Burmese restaurant and Hiro's Sushi are just awesome. Also, San Bruno prices are about 30% less than San Francisco on almost everything ranging from liquor to food so all in all this is my favorite place to stay and when I need to come back to San Francisco in the future this is where I will stay. I ended up paying $65 a night for an excellent conveniently located room.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
A Day In the Office
So I'm talking to one of my co-workers when he mentions his cousin has roid rage and another family member has Aspergers syndrome. I offer that I have hemorrhoids too. He looks at me funny. Then he says he has AADD. I ask what that is and he says its adult attention deficit disorder. I tell him I had that too but now its cured. He asks what cured me and I tell him my dad smacked me in the head and told me to 'pay attention', so he gets up and leaves.
A few of the office secretaries come to my table and sit down. They give me the quick look over and decide, I guess, that I am safe enough, being almost 30 years older than them so they start talking about sex to each other. I interrupt and say, "don't talk about sex in front of me, I'm a married man - I haven't had sex in like 5 years". They all laugh, so I get up and see if I can find a less rude, more understanding table.
I sit down with some younger guys and we start talking about real estate. One of the guys asks "hey Ken, how many properties do you own". Not wanting to sound like a big shot I say, well, I just have an itty bitty house up in Central Florida, a small little condo down in South Florida with two little tiny dogs. One of the kids asks "gee Ken don't you have anything big" and I answer "yea my wife" at which point they all stare at me so I decide to move to yet another table.
I'm sitting alone when my boss comes up and sits next to me. "How many hours do you have into this project so far" he asks. I reply "I have goals on my mind, not hours" to which he responds, "I have goals too and one of mine is to see your hours". I try the water cooler.
Just as I'm getting ready to take a drink of water a guy comes up to me and stops me. "Hey don't drink that" he warns, "do you know what fish do in that?". He hands me a beer. I look at him and say "it's like 8:30 in the morning, I don't drink before 9am". He laughs and takes a swig from his. Finally, a kindred spirit.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Favorite Cuss Word As Of Today
I believe my favorite cuss word lately, that is, a word I can't use in mixed company, is fucktard. Its a concatenation of the words 'fucking' and 'retard', and it is one of my favorite 'dirty words' lately because it is so applicable to what I have had to deal with over the last year; fucktards.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Fantasy Football 2012 Team One
THE DRAFT
So I drafted my first team July 12th at 9pm. Its a standard $350 NFFC On-Line with (12 team snake draft with third round reversal) a top prize of $50k. I felt that rather than just discuss a bunch of different players I would simply comment on why I drafted who I did where.
I drafted from the ninth position which is exactly what I had asked for in my pre-draft preferences. My good friend Jimmy, who is also in this league, had asked for the sixth spot and he got that too. Just an FYI - in this league before the draft you set your draft position preferences from spot one to twelve.
My rationale for drafting ninth is that there are seven really good running backs (RBs) this year (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Matthews, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden) who to me are pretty much the same, or at least I wouldn't mind drafting any one of them first, so drafting seventh would be better than picking first since I would then get a better second round pick. Now I also figure both Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers will be gone by the ninth pick so that means I will get one of the previously mentioned nine players at the ninth spot, who to me, are all worthy of a first round pick and just about equal in value. Of course many will nit pick and say "McFadden, really?" or "Aaron or Calvin are a hell of a lot more valuable then Chris Johnson", but I feel getting any one of the aforementioned at the ninth spot is good value.
Given a third round reversal the ninth spot gets three really good picks (ninth, fourth and fourth) so I was hoping to get a RB in the first round and then another RB in the second. If a really good one fell to me, I would also take one in the third round, otherwise I take a WR. I think there are about 20-24 decent RBs this year then the quality falls off drastically. Not so with wide receivers. There are tons of them this year. So my general draft strategy for this year is to pick from the number nine spot and pick RB-RB-RB-WR-WR=WR=QB-TE-QB.
All of this strategy is subject to my one basic fantasy draft rule which is that you take the best available player regardless of position with the first three picks, with a minor addendum being don't take two QBs or TEs with the first three picks. So, I am always going to adapt my draft strategy if I see a player I feel is a number one pick, for example, available in the third round. So, going into my first draft, this is kind of how I was thinking.
Here is how the draft actually went with my picks bolded ...
1 1 Arian Foster RB 1 2 Ray Rice RB 1 3 LeSean McCoy RB 1 4 Calvin Johnson WR 1 5 Aaron Rodgers QB 1 6 Ryan Mathews RB 1 7 Tom Brady QB 1 8 Chris Johnson RB 1 9 Maurice Jones-Drew RB 1 10 Trent Richardson RB 1 11 Drew Brees QB 1 12 Matthew Stafford QB
2 1 Wes Welker WR 2 2 Darren McFadden RB 2 3 Jimmy Graham TE 2 4 Marshawn Lynch RB 2 5 Andre Johnson WR 2 6 Rob Gronkowski TE 2 7 Larry Fitzgerald WR 2 8 DeMarco Murray RB 2 9 Roddy White WR 2 10 Matt Forte RB 2 11 Cam Newton QB 2 12 Jamaal Charles RB
3 1 Brandon Marshall WR 3 2 Dez Bryant WR 3 3 Darren Sproles RB 3 4 A.J. Green WR 3 5 Julio Jones WR 3 6 Greg Jennings WR 3 7 Hakeem Nicks WR 3 8 Adrian Peterson RB 3 9 Mike Wallace WR 3 10 Steve Smith WR 3 11 Victor Cruz WR 3 12 Steven Jackson RB
4 1 Frank Gore RB 4 2 Percy Harvin WR 4 3 Brandon Lloyd WR 4 4 Miles Austin WR 4 5 Marques Colston WR 4 6 Jeremy Maclin WR 4 7 Jordy Nelson WR 4 8 Demaryius Thomas WR 4 9 DeSean Jackson WR 4 10 Dwayne Bowe WR 4 11 Kenny Britt WR 4 12 Fred Jackson RB
5 1 Doug Martin RB 5 2 Ahmad Bradshaw RB 5 3 Michael Vick QB 5 4 Peyton Manning QB 5 5 Jahvid Best RB 5 6 Michael Turner RB 5 7 Vernon Davis TE 5 8 Antonio Brown WR 5 9 Tony Romo QB 5 10 Eric Decker WR 5 11 Aaron Hernandez TE 5 12 Vincent Jackson WR
6 1 Stevie Johnson WR 6 2 C.J. Spiller RB 6 3 Antonio Gates TE 6 4 Jason Witten TE 6 5 Jermichael Finley TE 6 6 Roy Helu RB 6 7 Reggie Bush RB 6 8 James Starks RB 6 9 Shonn Greene RB 6 10 Torrey Smith WR 6 11 Jonathan Stewart RB 6 12 Willis McGahee RB
7 1 Reggie Wayne WR 7 2 Fred Davis TE 7 3 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB 7 4 Robert Meachem WR 7 5 Philip Rivers QB 7 6 Isaac Redman RB 7 7 Eli Manning QB 7 8 DeAngelo Williams RB 7 9 Beanie Wells RB 7 10 Matt Ryan QB 7 11 Stevan Ridley RB 7 12 Justin Blackmon WR
8 1 Michael Crabtree WR 8 2 Mark Ingram RB 8 3 Donald Brown RB 8 4 Jacob Tamme TE 8 5 Greg Little WR 8 6 Denarius Moore WR 8 7 Pierre Garcon WR 8 8 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 8 9 Tony Gonzalez TE 8 10 Peyton Hillis RB 8 11 Santonio Holmes WR 8 12 Brandon Pettigrew TE
9 1 Lance Moore WR 9 2 Ben Roethlisberger QB 9 3 Jermaine Gresham TE 9 4 Danny Amendola WR 9 5 Sidney Rice WR 9 6 Malcom Floyd WR 9 7 Ben Tate RB 9 8 Toby Gerhart RB 9 9 Felix Jones RB 9 10 Ronnie Hillman RB 9 11 Titus Young WR 9 12 Jay Cutler QB
10 1 Dustin Keller TE 10 2 Brent Celek TE 10 3 Michael Bush RB 10 4 Pierre Thomas RB 10 5 Mike Williams WR 10 6 Ryan Williams RB 10 7 San Francisco DST 10 8 Jared Cook TE 10 9 Robert Griffin III QB 10 10 David Wilson RB 10 11 Doug Baldwin WR 10 12 Shane Vereen RB
11 1 Austin Collie WR 11 2 Jacquizz Rodgers RB 11 3 Isaiah Pead RB 11 4 Daniel Thomas RB 11 5 LeGarrette Blount RB 11 6 Mikel LeShoure RB 11 7 Greg Olsen TE 11 8 Nate Washington WR 11 9 Kevin Smith RB 11 10 Randy Moss WR 11 11 Anquan Boldin WR 11 12 Michael Floyd WR
12 1 Matt Schaub QB 12 2 Alex Green RB 12 3 Jake Locker QB 12 4 Carson Palmer QB 12 5 Owen Daniels TE 12 6 Joe Flacco QB 12 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 12 8 Santana Moss WR 12 9 Laurent Robinson WR 12 10 James Jones WR 12 11 Mike Goodson RB 12 12 Delone Carter RB
13 1 Andrew Luck QB 13 2 Eddie Royal WR 13 3 Brandon LaFell WR 13 4 Chad Johnson WR 13 5 Josh Freeman QB 13 6 Vincent Brown WR 13 7 Jon Baldwin WR 13 8 Coby Fleener TE 13 9 Tim Hightower RB 13 10 Nate Burleson WR 13 11 Andy Dalton QB 13 12 Alshon Jeffery WR
14 1 Kyle Rudolph TE 14 2 Jerome Simpson WR 14 3 Randall Cobb WR 14 4 Bernard Scott RB 14 5 Mike Tolbert RB 14 6 Jacoby Ford WR 14 7 Earl Bennett WR 14 8 Chicago DST DST 14 9 David Nelson WR 14 10 Kendall Wright WR 14 11 Davone Bess WR 14 12 Evan Royster RB
15 1 Heath Miller TE 15 2 Joe McKnight RB 15 3 Taiwan Jones RB 15 4 Sebastian Janikowski K 15 5 Rashard Mendenhall RB 15 6 David Akers K 15 7 Rashad Jennings RB 15 8 Philadelphia DST 15 9 Brian Quick WR 15 10 Ed Dickson TE 15 11 Rueben Randle WR 15 12 Green Bay DST
16 1 Detroit DST 16 2 Houston DST 16 3 Buffalo DST 16 4 Baltimore DST 16 5 Dexter McCluster RB 16 6 New York (N) DST 16 7 Jason Snelling RB 16 8 New York (A) DST 16 9 Pittsburgh DST 16 10 Seattle DST 16 11 New England DST 16 12 Atlanta DST
17 1 Dallas DST 17 2 Stephen Gostkowski K 17 3 Devery Henderson WR 17 4 Sam Bradford QB 17 5 Lance Kendricks TE 17 6 Brian Hartline WR 17 7 Dan Bailey K 17 8 Arizona DST 17 9 Cedric Benson RB 17 10 Andre Caldwell WR 17 11 Emmanuel Sanders WR 17 12 Mohamed Sanu WR
18 1 Knowshon Moreno RB 18 2 Mason Crosby K 18 3 Kendall Hunter RB 18 4 Javon Ringer RB 18 5 Golden Tate WR 18 6 Lamar Miller RB 18 7 Kellen Winslow TE 18 8 Chris Rainey RB 18 9 Dallas Clark TE 18 10 Montario Hardesty RB 18 11 Joseph Addai RB 18 12 Jordan Shipley WR
19 1 Matt Prater K 19 2 Martellus Bennett TE 19 3 Rob Bironas K 19 4 Ronnie Brown RB 19 5 Robbie Gould K 19 6 Kevin Walter WR 19 7 Tim Tebow QB 19 8 Matt Bryant K 19 9 Bernard Pierce RB 19 10 Alex Henery K 19 11 Steve Breaston WR 19 12 Chris Givens WR
20 1 Garrett Hartley K 20 2 Nick Toon WR 20 3 Leonard Hankerson WR 20 4 Jason Hanson K 20 5 Alex Smith QB 20 6 Tony Moeaki TE 20 7 Lance Ball RB 20 8 Robert Turbin RB 20 9 Dion Lewis RB 20 10 Matt Flynn QB 20 11 Kellen Davis TE 20 12 Marcus Easley WR
MY ANALYSIS
I was very happy MJD dropped to me at the ninth pick. I consider him the 4th or 5th best back in the draft. I assume his current hold-out helped. I was hoping McFadden would fall to me in the second but when he went it was a no-brainer taking Lynch, and keep in mind I took him before he got his DUI. I would probably have taken him even if I knew about the DUI. I suspect he will have a big year in Seattle.
I was very conflicted in the third round but ended up taking AJ Green over a third running back. I absolutely love Green and consider him the second best receiver in the draft just ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. He had more down field targets last year (attempts over 20 yards or maybe its 30) than anybody, if I'm not mistaken, and he should get better in his second year. He is one of the few rookie WRs or RBs I can think of who have made an impact in their first year.
My fourth round pick was a bit long in coming due to the nature of the third round reversal. I watched a lot of quality go before it was my turn. I ended up choosing Deean Jackson over Michael Vick and Ahmad Bradshaw mainly because he is fresh off a new contract and should be motivated this year, which I feel he was not last year. Also, he is one of the fastest WRs in the league even though he's a pretty big guy. I like him maybe even more than Percy Harvin who I was thinking I would end up with here.
My fifth pick is where I decided to take my first major risk. Peyton Manning may have a great year in Denver or he way have a terrible year and even get hurt, but I still decided at this point that I would go with Manning and RGIII; two big risk/reward QBs. If I was going to not play it safe at any position this year I had already decided it would be QB. Of course I now had to watch how the QBs went off the board and decide how long I could risk not taking Robert Grffin but it was clear I was now going to have to draft him at some point in the next 3-4 rounds.
I took Shonn Green in the 6th round mainly because other than Green-Ellis I didn't think there were any decent non-platoon starters left. I think this is the last year for Green; either he kicks ass or he's out in NY. I figure they will run the wildcat up there a lot with Tebow and Sporano so I see Green getting a ton of carries (around 275-325) in a more open offense than he has run in the past. He is a risk, but as my 3rd RB and potential flex I felt he had the upside to justify that risk.
I may have made a mistake and reached for Meechem in the 7th but WRs were getting scarce and all the news coming out of early Chargers training camp is that Norv Turner loves him and he will probably be their number one receiver this year. It is interesting that Peter King just posted an article today that said "Royal over Meechem" but I don't agree. Anyway, by this point in the draft it was pretty clear I was gonna have to take some chances to find a decent number three receiver as most of the good receivers were already gone by the 7th round.
Taking Tony Gonzalez over Brandon Pettigrew in the 8th may prove to be the biggest mistake I made in this draft. Pettigrew is Stafford's second favorite target after Calvin and I think he will only get better this year. I like Gonzalez though as I think the Falcons will be a high scoring offense this year and teams will be covering White and Jones at the expense of leaving a line backer on Gonzalez who should get his usuall 8-12 TDs this year.
The ninth round is where I went against my better judgement and drafted Danny Amendola over Sidney Rice because my son Edward kept screaming in my ear. You would think by now I was immune to such behavior but let's just say this was not really my choice though I do agree Amendola has an opportunity to catch over 60-70 passes this year. He could be a poor man's Welker so I am not terribly upset over this pick, unless of course Rice has a big year in Seattle which is what I am expecting (note - Ed says he is coming off shoulder surgeries and may not be the same player he was before the operations).
When I saw Jay Cutler go off the board at the end of the ninth I knew it was time to pull the trigger on Griffin. I actually was happy to get him in the tenth as I thought I might have to draft him earlier.
I took Daniel Thomas in the 11th round and was very happy with him, though my friend Jimmy who drafted sixth thinks he will be the 3rd back after Bush and Miller. He is high on Lamar Miller but I still think Thomas will be the starter before the season ends (unless Reggie Bush does not get hurt which I think is highly unlikely). Miller does have some wheels though. I'm pretty sure he wiull be returning kickoffs for the fish this year.
I took Laurent Robinson in the 12th round because he was a big free agent acquisition for Jacksonville and I know they will target him a lot. In fact I believe he will get about twice as many targets as Blackmon and thats if Blackmon can keep out of trouble. I also am banking on Chad Henne taking over the starting QB spot, hopefully, sooner rather than later. He is a NFL caliber QB even if his time in Miami did not show it. In time I expect either Robinson or my next pick to become my third WR.
Chad Johnson (once known as Ochocinco) was available in the 13th round so I took him. Even though his coach said "he will be our number one wide receiver if he makes the team" I just don't think the Dolphins have any choice at this point. Devon Bess is a decent slot receiver but he is not a number one WR nor is he much of a down field threat. Ochocinco said the Patroits kept him down last year and I believe it. I think he will have a bounce back year this year, my only concern being who will throw him the ball? I'm thinking Garrard for half the season, Tennehill for a few games then Matt Morre. Its a mess which is why Ocho is a 13th round pick. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
I have absolutely nothing to say about my 14th round pick, David Nelson, except that my son Edward basically made it. He loves him, and I agreed to take him so we'll see. Had I not taken Nelson here, I would have taken Evan Royster or Rashard Jennings (MJD's handcuff).
Janikowski and Baltimore are two sentimental picks for me as I have had both on just about every money team I've had over the years and they always do well.
Ronnie Brown and Dallas Clark were my picks but Deion Lewis (my last pick) was made by Ed. I suspect Ronnie Brown and Deion Lewis will be on the waiver wire by week five but you never know. Dallas Clark might have been the biggest sleeper of the draft now that Winslow is in Seattle. I felt he was a great risk at this point in the draft.
So I drafted my first team July 12th at 9pm. Its a standard $350 NFFC On-Line with (12 team snake draft with third round reversal) a top prize of $50k. I felt that rather than just discuss a bunch of different players I would simply comment on why I drafted who I did where.
I drafted from the ninth position which is exactly what I had asked for in my pre-draft preferences. My good friend Jimmy, who is also in this league, had asked for the sixth spot and he got that too. Just an FYI - in this league before the draft you set your draft position preferences from spot one to twelve.
My rationale for drafting ninth is that there are seven really good running backs (RBs) this year (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Matthews, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden) who to me are pretty much the same, or at least I wouldn't mind drafting any one of them first, so drafting seventh would be better than picking first since I would then get a better second round pick. Now I also figure both Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers will be gone by the ninth pick so that means I will get one of the previously mentioned nine players at the ninth spot, who to me, are all worthy of a first round pick and just about equal in value. Of course many will nit pick and say "McFadden, really?" or "Aaron or Calvin are a hell of a lot more valuable then Chris Johnson", but I feel getting any one of the aforementioned at the ninth spot is good value.
Given a third round reversal the ninth spot gets three really good picks (ninth, fourth and fourth) so I was hoping to get a RB in the first round and then another RB in the second. If a really good one fell to me, I would also take one in the third round, otherwise I take a WR. I think there are about 20-24 decent RBs this year then the quality falls off drastically. Not so with wide receivers. There are tons of them this year. So my general draft strategy for this year is to pick from the number nine spot and pick RB-RB-RB-WR-WR=WR=QB-TE-QB.
All of this strategy is subject to my one basic fantasy draft rule which is that you take the best available player regardless of position with the first three picks, with a minor addendum being don't take two QBs or TEs with the first three picks. So, I am always going to adapt my draft strategy if I see a player I feel is a number one pick, for example, available in the third round. So, going into my first draft, this is kind of how I was thinking.
Here is how the draft actually went with my picks bolded ...
1 1 Arian Foster RB 1 2 Ray Rice RB 1 3 LeSean McCoy RB 1 4 Calvin Johnson WR 1 5 Aaron Rodgers QB 1 6 Ryan Mathews RB 1 7 Tom Brady QB 1 8 Chris Johnson RB 1 9 Maurice Jones-Drew RB 1 10 Trent Richardson RB 1 11 Drew Brees QB 1 12 Matthew Stafford QB
2 1 Wes Welker WR 2 2 Darren McFadden RB 2 3 Jimmy Graham TE 2 4 Marshawn Lynch RB 2 5 Andre Johnson WR 2 6 Rob Gronkowski TE 2 7 Larry Fitzgerald WR 2 8 DeMarco Murray RB 2 9 Roddy White WR 2 10 Matt Forte RB 2 11 Cam Newton QB 2 12 Jamaal Charles RB
3 1 Brandon Marshall WR 3 2 Dez Bryant WR 3 3 Darren Sproles RB 3 4 A.J. Green WR 3 5 Julio Jones WR 3 6 Greg Jennings WR 3 7 Hakeem Nicks WR 3 8 Adrian Peterson RB 3 9 Mike Wallace WR 3 10 Steve Smith WR 3 11 Victor Cruz WR 3 12 Steven Jackson RB
4 1 Frank Gore RB 4 2 Percy Harvin WR 4 3 Brandon Lloyd WR 4 4 Miles Austin WR 4 5 Marques Colston WR 4 6 Jeremy Maclin WR 4 7 Jordy Nelson WR 4 8 Demaryius Thomas WR 4 9 DeSean Jackson WR 4 10 Dwayne Bowe WR 4 11 Kenny Britt WR 4 12 Fred Jackson RB
5 1 Doug Martin RB 5 2 Ahmad Bradshaw RB 5 3 Michael Vick QB 5 4 Peyton Manning QB 5 5 Jahvid Best RB 5 6 Michael Turner RB 5 7 Vernon Davis TE 5 8 Antonio Brown WR 5 9 Tony Romo QB 5 10 Eric Decker WR 5 11 Aaron Hernandez TE 5 12 Vincent Jackson WR
6 1 Stevie Johnson WR 6 2 C.J. Spiller RB 6 3 Antonio Gates TE 6 4 Jason Witten TE 6 5 Jermichael Finley TE 6 6 Roy Helu RB 6 7 Reggie Bush RB 6 8 James Starks RB 6 9 Shonn Greene RB 6 10 Torrey Smith WR 6 11 Jonathan Stewart RB 6 12 Willis McGahee RB
7 1 Reggie Wayne WR 7 2 Fred Davis TE 7 3 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB 7 4 Robert Meachem WR 7 5 Philip Rivers QB 7 6 Isaac Redman RB 7 7 Eli Manning QB 7 8 DeAngelo Williams RB 7 9 Beanie Wells RB 7 10 Matt Ryan QB 7 11 Stevan Ridley RB 7 12 Justin Blackmon WR
8 1 Michael Crabtree WR 8 2 Mark Ingram RB 8 3 Donald Brown RB 8 4 Jacob Tamme TE 8 5 Greg Little WR 8 6 Denarius Moore WR 8 7 Pierre Garcon WR 8 8 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 8 9 Tony Gonzalez TE 8 10 Peyton Hillis RB 8 11 Santonio Holmes WR 8 12 Brandon Pettigrew TE
9 1 Lance Moore WR 9 2 Ben Roethlisberger QB 9 3 Jermaine Gresham TE 9 4 Danny Amendola WR 9 5 Sidney Rice WR 9 6 Malcom Floyd WR 9 7 Ben Tate RB 9 8 Toby Gerhart RB 9 9 Felix Jones RB 9 10 Ronnie Hillman RB 9 11 Titus Young WR 9 12 Jay Cutler QB
10 1 Dustin Keller TE 10 2 Brent Celek TE 10 3 Michael Bush RB 10 4 Pierre Thomas RB 10 5 Mike Williams WR 10 6 Ryan Williams RB 10 7 San Francisco DST 10 8 Jared Cook TE 10 9 Robert Griffin III QB 10 10 David Wilson RB 10 11 Doug Baldwin WR 10 12 Shane Vereen RB
11 1 Austin Collie WR 11 2 Jacquizz Rodgers RB 11 3 Isaiah Pead RB 11 4 Daniel Thomas RB 11 5 LeGarrette Blount RB 11 6 Mikel LeShoure RB 11 7 Greg Olsen TE 11 8 Nate Washington WR 11 9 Kevin Smith RB 11 10 Randy Moss WR 11 11 Anquan Boldin WR 11 12 Michael Floyd WR
12 1 Matt Schaub QB 12 2 Alex Green RB 12 3 Jake Locker QB 12 4 Carson Palmer QB 12 5 Owen Daniels TE 12 6 Joe Flacco QB 12 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 12 8 Santana Moss WR 12 9 Laurent Robinson WR 12 10 James Jones WR 12 11 Mike Goodson RB 12 12 Delone Carter RB
13 1 Andrew Luck QB 13 2 Eddie Royal WR 13 3 Brandon LaFell WR 13 4 Chad Johnson WR 13 5 Josh Freeman QB 13 6 Vincent Brown WR 13 7 Jon Baldwin WR 13 8 Coby Fleener TE 13 9 Tim Hightower RB 13 10 Nate Burleson WR 13 11 Andy Dalton QB 13 12 Alshon Jeffery WR
14 1 Kyle Rudolph TE 14 2 Jerome Simpson WR 14 3 Randall Cobb WR 14 4 Bernard Scott RB 14 5 Mike Tolbert RB 14 6 Jacoby Ford WR 14 7 Earl Bennett WR 14 8 Chicago DST DST 14 9 David Nelson WR 14 10 Kendall Wright WR 14 11 Davone Bess WR 14 12 Evan Royster RB
15 1 Heath Miller TE 15 2 Joe McKnight RB 15 3 Taiwan Jones RB 15 4 Sebastian Janikowski K 15 5 Rashard Mendenhall RB 15 6 David Akers K 15 7 Rashad Jennings RB 15 8 Philadelphia DST 15 9 Brian Quick WR 15 10 Ed Dickson TE 15 11 Rueben Randle WR 15 12 Green Bay DST
16 1 Detroit DST 16 2 Houston DST 16 3 Buffalo DST 16 4 Baltimore DST 16 5 Dexter McCluster RB 16 6 New York (N) DST 16 7 Jason Snelling RB 16 8 New York (A) DST 16 9 Pittsburgh DST 16 10 Seattle DST 16 11 New England DST 16 12 Atlanta DST
17 1 Dallas DST 17 2 Stephen Gostkowski K 17 3 Devery Henderson WR 17 4 Sam Bradford QB 17 5 Lance Kendricks TE 17 6 Brian Hartline WR 17 7 Dan Bailey K 17 8 Arizona DST 17 9 Cedric Benson RB 17 10 Andre Caldwell WR 17 11 Emmanuel Sanders WR 17 12 Mohamed Sanu WR
18 1 Knowshon Moreno RB 18 2 Mason Crosby K 18 3 Kendall Hunter RB 18 4 Javon Ringer RB 18 5 Golden Tate WR 18 6 Lamar Miller RB 18 7 Kellen Winslow TE 18 8 Chris Rainey RB 18 9 Dallas Clark TE 18 10 Montario Hardesty RB 18 11 Joseph Addai RB 18 12 Jordan Shipley WR
19 1 Matt Prater K 19 2 Martellus Bennett TE 19 3 Rob Bironas K 19 4 Ronnie Brown RB 19 5 Robbie Gould K 19 6 Kevin Walter WR 19 7 Tim Tebow QB 19 8 Matt Bryant K 19 9 Bernard Pierce RB 19 10 Alex Henery K 19 11 Steve Breaston WR 19 12 Chris Givens WR
20 1 Garrett Hartley K 20 2 Nick Toon WR 20 3 Leonard Hankerson WR 20 4 Jason Hanson K 20 5 Alex Smith QB 20 6 Tony Moeaki TE 20 7 Lance Ball RB 20 8 Robert Turbin RB 20 9 Dion Lewis RB 20 10 Matt Flynn QB 20 11 Kellen Davis TE 20 12 Marcus Easley WR
MY ANALYSIS
I was very happy MJD dropped to me at the ninth pick. I consider him the 4th or 5th best back in the draft. I assume his current hold-out helped. I was hoping McFadden would fall to me in the second but when he went it was a no-brainer taking Lynch, and keep in mind I took him before he got his DUI. I would probably have taken him even if I knew about the DUI. I suspect he will have a big year in Seattle.
I was very conflicted in the third round but ended up taking AJ Green over a third running back. I absolutely love Green and consider him the second best receiver in the draft just ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. He had more down field targets last year (attempts over 20 yards or maybe its 30) than anybody, if I'm not mistaken, and he should get better in his second year. He is one of the few rookie WRs or RBs I can think of who have made an impact in their first year.
My fourth round pick was a bit long in coming due to the nature of the third round reversal. I watched a lot of quality go before it was my turn. I ended up choosing Deean Jackson over Michael Vick and Ahmad Bradshaw mainly because he is fresh off a new contract and should be motivated this year, which I feel he was not last year. Also, he is one of the fastest WRs in the league even though he's a pretty big guy. I like him maybe even more than Percy Harvin who I was thinking I would end up with here.
My fifth pick is where I decided to take my first major risk. Peyton Manning may have a great year in Denver or he way have a terrible year and even get hurt, but I still decided at this point that I would go with Manning and RGIII; two big risk/reward QBs. If I was going to not play it safe at any position this year I had already decided it would be QB. Of course I now had to watch how the QBs went off the board and decide how long I could risk not taking Robert Grffin but it was clear I was now going to have to draft him at some point in the next 3-4 rounds.
I took Shonn Green in the 6th round mainly because other than Green-Ellis I didn't think there were any decent non-platoon starters left. I think this is the last year for Green; either he kicks ass or he's out in NY. I figure they will run the wildcat up there a lot with Tebow and Sporano so I see Green getting a ton of carries (around 275-325) in a more open offense than he has run in the past. He is a risk, but as my 3rd RB and potential flex I felt he had the upside to justify that risk.
I may have made a mistake and reached for Meechem in the 7th but WRs were getting scarce and all the news coming out of early Chargers training camp is that Norv Turner loves him and he will probably be their number one receiver this year. It is interesting that Peter King just posted an article today that said "Royal over Meechem" but I don't agree. Anyway, by this point in the draft it was pretty clear I was gonna have to take some chances to find a decent number three receiver as most of the good receivers were already gone by the 7th round.
Taking Tony Gonzalez over Brandon Pettigrew in the 8th may prove to be the biggest mistake I made in this draft. Pettigrew is Stafford's second favorite target after Calvin and I think he will only get better this year. I like Gonzalez though as I think the Falcons will be a high scoring offense this year and teams will be covering White and Jones at the expense of leaving a line backer on Gonzalez who should get his usuall 8-12 TDs this year.
The ninth round is where I went against my better judgement and drafted Danny Amendola over Sidney Rice because my son Edward kept screaming in my ear. You would think by now I was immune to such behavior but let's just say this was not really my choice though I do agree Amendola has an opportunity to catch over 60-70 passes this year. He could be a poor man's Welker so I am not terribly upset over this pick, unless of course Rice has a big year in Seattle which is what I am expecting (note - Ed says he is coming off shoulder surgeries and may not be the same player he was before the operations).
When I saw Jay Cutler go off the board at the end of the ninth I knew it was time to pull the trigger on Griffin. I actually was happy to get him in the tenth as I thought I might have to draft him earlier.
I took Daniel Thomas in the 11th round and was very happy with him, though my friend Jimmy who drafted sixth thinks he will be the 3rd back after Bush and Miller. He is high on Lamar Miller but I still think Thomas will be the starter before the season ends (unless Reggie Bush does not get hurt which I think is highly unlikely). Miller does have some wheels though. I'm pretty sure he wiull be returning kickoffs for the fish this year.
I took Laurent Robinson in the 12th round because he was a big free agent acquisition for Jacksonville and I know they will target him a lot. In fact I believe he will get about twice as many targets as Blackmon and thats if Blackmon can keep out of trouble. I also am banking on Chad Henne taking over the starting QB spot, hopefully, sooner rather than later. He is a NFL caliber QB even if his time in Miami did not show it. In time I expect either Robinson or my next pick to become my third WR.
Chad Johnson (once known as Ochocinco) was available in the 13th round so I took him. Even though his coach said "he will be our number one wide receiver if he makes the team" I just don't think the Dolphins have any choice at this point. Devon Bess is a decent slot receiver but he is not a number one WR nor is he much of a down field threat. Ochocinco said the Patroits kept him down last year and I believe it. I think he will have a bounce back year this year, my only concern being who will throw him the ball? I'm thinking Garrard for half the season, Tennehill for a few games then Matt Morre. Its a mess which is why Ocho is a 13th round pick. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
I have absolutely nothing to say about my 14th round pick, David Nelson, except that my son Edward basically made it. He loves him, and I agreed to take him so we'll see. Had I not taken Nelson here, I would have taken Evan Royster or Rashard Jennings (MJD's handcuff).
Janikowski and Baltimore are two sentimental picks for me as I have had both on just about every money team I've had over the years and they always do well.
Ronnie Brown and Dallas Clark were my picks but Deion Lewis (my last pick) was made by Ed. I suspect Ronnie Brown and Deion Lewis will be on the waiver wire by week five but you never know. Dallas Clark might have been the biggest sleeper of the draft now that Winslow is in Seattle. I felt he was a great risk at this point in the draft.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
There Was A Serpent
There was a serpent and man did smite him by cutting him in half, however, the serpent refused to die and instead man now had two serpents to deal with, so man did devise a method to smash the two serpents into a million tiny little pieces which he did and then man had a million tiny little serpents to deal with until finally man decided to give up at which point the serpents died due to lack of attention.
Monday, June 4, 2012
So I think I am going to blog my 2012 fantasy football season. I will post things which were important to my decision making process and I will discuss my rationale for various draft picks I make. I am typically an early starter and this year is no different. I have started with the Vegas odss for the teams for the upcoming season. The Vegas odds I found on-line as of June 1st 2012 are as follows ...
Green Bay Packers +$500 (5 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$800 (8 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$800 (8 to 1)
Houston Texans +$1,100 (11 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants +$1,300 (13 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,600 (16 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$2,400 (24 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$2,500 (25 to 1)
New York Jets +$2,500 (25 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Arizona Cardinals +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$6,000 (60 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$10,000 (100 to 1)
This is where I will begin my analysis. Well, with one additional bit of information. Here is how the teams finished last year
NFC
NFC EAST W L T PCT
NY Giants 9 7 0 .563
Philadelphia 8 8 0 .500
Dallas 8 8 0 .500
Washington 5 11 0 .313
NFC NORTH W L T PCT
Green Bay 15 1 0 .938
Detroit 10 6 0 .625
Chicago 8 8 0 .500
Minnesota 3 13 0 .188
NFC SOUTH W L T PCT
New Orleans 13 3 0 .813
Atlanta 10 6 0 .625
Carolina 6 10 0 .375
Tampa Bay 4 12 0 .250
NFC WEST W L T PCT
San Francisco 13 3 0 .813
Arizona 8 8 0 .500
Seattle 7 9 0 .438
St. Louis 2 14 0 .125
AFC
AFC EAST W L T PCT
New England 13 3 0 .813
NY Jets 8 8 0 .500
Miami 6 10 0 .375
Buffalo 6 10 0 .375
AFC NORTH W L T PCT
Baltimore 12 4 0 .750
Pittsburgh 12 4 0 .750
Cincinnati 9 7 0 .563
Cleveland 4 12 0 .250
AFC SOUTH W L T PCT
Houston 10 6 0 .625
Tennessee 9 7 0 .563
Jacksonville 5 11 0 .313
Indianapolis 2 14 0 .125
AFC WEST W L T PCT
Denver 8 8 0 .500
San Diego 8 8 0 .500
Oakland 8 8 0 .500
Kansas City 7 9 0 .438
Now, armed with that information, we can begin by looking to see who the Vegas odds makers think is going to do better (or worse) this year. This is a good place to start and then we can look at each case and see if we agree or disagree with them and why.
Fantasy football is an interesting thing because it is often the case that changes in non-position players has an affect on position players. As an extreme example, take Peyton Manning. If you put him on a team with 5 bad rookies on the offensive line then he will get killed, if you insteaed put him on a team with 5 all pro offensive lineman who will give him unlimited time then he could be throwing to high school players and still do well, so it is often the case that non-position players will be one of the reasons the Vegas odds makers move a team up or down from where they finished the previous year. When we later analyze the deltas the Vegas guys have predicted we will make sure we understand what is going on with the non position players before we jump to any conclusions about the position players.
Now it is also the case that rookies in the NFL, while very flashy, rarely make an impact their first year. Yes, some QBs have come through recently that blow that theory out of the water (although it goes the other way more often than not), but think about it. When was the last time a rookie WR or RB came into the league and did anything of sgnificance? Last year, A.J. Green is the only exception to the rule I can think of for about 5 years. I have friends who say "oh, well if not for injury, RB X or WR Y but I say phoee. Injury is exactly what I am talking about. You have guys who go four years at the collgiate level and never get a scratch. They play one year in the NFL and get injured and you never hear from them again. Its a completely diffrerent level of play and players hold up differently. So, one thing I have built-in in my fantasy drafting is to stay away from rookies unless like anything else, you can get a crazy steal or your willing to take a calculated risk, like Cam Newton was last year. And, BTW I drafted A.J. Green way high last year, but mainly because he was a calculated risk as a WR3 where there was absolutely nobody available (like round 9) unless you consider Jerome Simpson a better 9th round value.
Now a second thing that is kind of ingrained in my fantasy drafting is the three year rule. This is something my son Edward convinced me of and I tend to go with it. It goes something like this ... barring a trade somewhere, a rookie, in his third year with his original team will probably have a career year. Its kinda like the sophmore jinx in baseball. I am sure there is no scientific evidence to support it but I believe in it. So, one thing I will be looking for later when analyzing the position players is which players are in their 3rd year.
But, just to button up this already too long post, we will initially concentrate on things from a team level using the two pieces of information (data) I pasted above; the Vegas odds and last year's final results.
Green Bay Packers +$500 (5 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$800 (8 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$800 (8 to 1)
Houston Texans +$1,100 (11 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants +$1,300 (13 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,600 (16 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$2,400 (24 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$2,500 (25 to 1)
New York Jets +$2,500 (25 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Arizona Cardinals +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$6,000 (60 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$10,000 (100 to 1)
This is where I will begin my analysis. Well, with one additional bit of information. Here is how the teams finished last year
NFC
NFC EAST W L T PCT
NY Giants 9 7 0 .563
Philadelphia 8 8 0 .500
Dallas 8 8 0 .500
Washington 5 11 0 .313
NFC NORTH W L T PCT
Green Bay 15 1 0 .938
Detroit 10 6 0 .625
Chicago 8 8 0 .500
Minnesota 3 13 0 .188
NFC SOUTH W L T PCT
New Orleans 13 3 0 .813
Atlanta 10 6 0 .625
Carolina 6 10 0 .375
Tampa Bay 4 12 0 .250
NFC WEST W L T PCT
San Francisco 13 3 0 .813
Arizona 8 8 0 .500
Seattle 7 9 0 .438
St. Louis 2 14 0 .125
AFC
AFC EAST W L T PCT
New England 13 3 0 .813
NY Jets 8 8 0 .500
Miami 6 10 0 .375
Buffalo 6 10 0 .375
AFC NORTH W L T PCT
Baltimore 12 4 0 .750
Pittsburgh 12 4 0 .750
Cincinnati 9 7 0 .563
Cleveland 4 12 0 .250
AFC SOUTH W L T PCT
Houston 10 6 0 .625
Tennessee 9 7 0 .563
Jacksonville 5 11 0 .313
Indianapolis 2 14 0 .125
AFC WEST W L T PCT
Denver 8 8 0 .500
San Diego 8 8 0 .500
Oakland 8 8 0 .500
Kansas City 7 9 0 .438
Now, armed with that information, we can begin by looking to see who the Vegas odds makers think is going to do better (or worse) this year. This is a good place to start and then we can look at each case and see if we agree or disagree with them and why.
Fantasy football is an interesting thing because it is often the case that changes in non-position players has an affect on position players. As an extreme example, take Peyton Manning. If you put him on a team with 5 bad rookies on the offensive line then he will get killed, if you insteaed put him on a team with 5 all pro offensive lineman who will give him unlimited time then he could be throwing to high school players and still do well, so it is often the case that non-position players will be one of the reasons the Vegas odds makers move a team up or down from where they finished the previous year. When we later analyze the deltas the Vegas guys have predicted we will make sure we understand what is going on with the non position players before we jump to any conclusions about the position players.
Now it is also the case that rookies in the NFL, while very flashy, rarely make an impact their first year. Yes, some QBs have come through recently that blow that theory out of the water (although it goes the other way more often than not), but think about it. When was the last time a rookie WR or RB came into the league and did anything of sgnificance? Last year, A.J. Green is the only exception to the rule I can think of for about 5 years. I have friends who say "oh, well if not for injury, RB X or WR Y but I say phoee. Injury is exactly what I am talking about. You have guys who go four years at the collgiate level and never get a scratch. They play one year in the NFL and get injured and you never hear from them again. Its a completely diffrerent level of play and players hold up differently. So, one thing I have built-in in my fantasy drafting is to stay away from rookies unless like anything else, you can get a crazy steal or your willing to take a calculated risk, like Cam Newton was last year. And, BTW I drafted A.J. Green way high last year, but mainly because he was a calculated risk as a WR3 where there was absolutely nobody available (like round 9) unless you consider Jerome Simpson a better 9th round value.
Now a second thing that is kind of ingrained in my fantasy drafting is the three year rule. This is something my son Edward convinced me of and I tend to go with it. It goes something like this ... barring a trade somewhere, a rookie, in his third year with his original team will probably have a career year. Its kinda like the sophmore jinx in baseball. I am sure there is no scientific evidence to support it but I believe in it. So, one thing I will be looking for later when analyzing the position players is which players are in their 3rd year.
But, just to button up this already too long post, we will initially concentrate on things from a team level using the two pieces of information (data) I pasted above; the Vegas odds and last year's final results.
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